The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June 2026, is a competitive race between Labour and Reform UK. Labour's candidate Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is currently favoured by betting markets and prediction markets [1][2][3]. His personal popularity in the region is cited as a significant advantage that could offset Labour's poor recent local election performance.

Reform UK presents a serious challenge. Their candidate Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who finished second in the 2024 general election, is campaigning as a local champion. Reform UK won all eight council wards within the Makerfield constituency in the May 2026 local elections, securing approximately 50% of the aggregate vote share compared to Labour's 23% [4][5]. This strong local performance has made the seat genuinely marginal despite Labour holding it since its creation in 1983.

Betting markets show Labour ahead but not decisively. One prediction market assigned Burnham approximately a 57.5% implied probability of victory [1], though other markets show varying margins. The consensus among the panel is that while Labour remains the likeliest winner, the outcome is far from certain and a Reform UK upset is a realistic possibility if their local election momentum holds through the campaign.

Other candidates confirmed or expected to stand include Michael Winstanley for the Conservatives, Rebecca Shepherd for Restore Britain, and candidates from the Green Party and Liberal Democrats [4][3]. However, the race is effectively a two-horse contest between Burnham's regional appeal and Kenyon's local strength.