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問題 · 2026-06-03
厄爾尼諾通常使香港冬春季多雨、氣溫偏高、6月前颱風影響減少，但夏季降雨與颱風強度影響不確定。
厄爾尼諾對香港天氣的影響主要體現在季候風、降雨和熱帶氣旋三個方面。在氣溫方面，三個模型均同意厄爾尼諾會導致香港氣溫偏高，特別是冬季和初春，與全球暖化疊加效應可能增加極端高溫事件。
在降雨方面，厄爾尼諾通常會改變南海北部的大氣環流，導致香港冬季和春季降雨量較正常偏多[1][2]。然而，夏季降雨的影響則較不確定，可能出現正常、偏多或偏少的多種情況，受副熱帶高壓脊位置波動和其他環流因素影響。
在熱帶氣旋方面，厄爾尼諾年份西北太平洋的熱帶氣旋生成位置通常向東移[1]，導致香港在6月前受颱風直接影響的機率明顯降低[1]。三個模型均同意這一點。至於颱風強度變化，則存在較大爭議，無法得出一致結論。總體而言，厄爾尼諾並非唯一影響香港天氣的因素，實際天氣仍受其他氣候系統和短期天氣形勢影響。
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