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問題 · 2026-06-03
厄爾尼諾通過釋放海洋熱量，與人為暖化疊加，暫時推高全球氣溫，影響在發生後第二年最明顯。
厄爾尼諾對全球氣溫的影響主要體現在三個方面。首先，厄爾尼諾會將大量海洋熱量釋放至大氣，導致全球平均氣溫暫時上升。典型厄爾尼諾事件通常使全球氣溫上升約0.1至0.3攝氏度，強烈事件可達0.3至0.4攝氏度或更高，但具體幅度因事件強度而異[1]。其次，厄爾尼諾與人為溫室氣體排放產生疊加效應，顯著增加全球陸地和海洋出現極端高溫與熱浪的機率[1][2]。這種影響在厄爾尼諾發生後的第二年最為明顯，例如2023至2024年強厄爾尼諾助長了2024年成為有紀錄以來最熱年份[1]。第三，厄爾尼諾改變全球降雨模式，導致赤道中東太平洋降雨增加，而西太平洋地區如印尼及澳洲面臨乾旱，引發全球尺度的旱澇災害[1]。需要強調的是，全球升溫並非單純由厄爾尼諾驅動，長期溫室氣體累積才是根本原因，即使厄爾尼諾減弱或結束，全球氣溫仍可能維持偏高[3]。
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